Mapping current and future distribution of bat species probable
reservoirs of Ebolavirus in Democratic Republic of Congo
Abstract
Aim: In recent studies, three species of bat, Hypsignathus monstrosus,
Myonycteris torquata and Epomops franqueti were identified as the most
likely candidates to be reservoir for Ebolavirus. To help in epidemic
preparedness and surveillance, species distribution modeling techniques
are useful for predicting where these species are likely to occur in DR
Congo. Methods: MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future
distribution of the three species in DR Congo based on the occurrence
data collected from global biodiversity information facility and
environmental covariates collected from Worldclim and USGS. The future
distribution were obtained based on two scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) of
the HadGEM2-CC an IPPC5 climate projections from global climate models
(GCMs). Results: The suitable habitat of H. monstrosus, M. torquata and
E. franqueti are essentially located from latitude -5° to 5° and
longitude 17° to 30°. Overall, their favourable living areas are located
in the territories along the entire northern border and the entire
northern part of the eastern border of the DR Congo with varying degrees
of importance depending on the territories and species. Three
bioclimatic variables have shown to play major role in their spread, the
precipitation of the driest quarter, the precipitation of coldest
quarter and the temperature annual range. In the future, the suitable
area of these species will be decreasing and being essentially located
in the Kivu provinces. The change in the ecological niche of these
species will differ with respect to future climate scenario. Climate of
RCP 8.5 has shown to induce major decrease of their suitable habitat in
DR Congo. Main conclusions: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for
forecasting the future adaptive distribution of the three bat species
under climate change, and it provides important guidance for
comprehensive management of the Ebolavirus risk.