Supplementary results
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
The differing forecasts of the occupancies of the two polypore species
resulted from a combination of the general occupancies or
colonization-extinction rates (Table 1 in the main text) and the
forecasts of the covariates of the fitted models (Table S2-1).
Projections for the density of logs showed an increase in the production
land when based on the fine resolution deadwood data, but a decrease
when based on the coarse resolution data. However, the deadwood volume
was predicted to decline in the production land at both resolutions
(Fig. S4-1). This was because of a declining stand age in the production
land over the coming decades, with the steepest decline between 2020 and
2050 (Fig. S4-2). The clear-cutting of old (>120 years)
unprotected forests resulted in fewer large logs that would contribute
to the deadwood volumes, whereas the density of logs in the production
land would still increase owing to the self-thinning of younger forests.
This abrupt initial decline in the ages in the production land had a
strong influence on the connectivity measures which affected both the
production land and the set-asides. After 2050 the connectivity was
predicted to increase again, returning or exceeding the initial levels.