Fig. 3. Projections of mean occurrence probability and relative change in occurrence for Phellinus viticola over the present century in response to forest management. Panels A-B are for projections based on the colonisation-extinction models (Col-ext ) and panels C-D for those based on the occupancy models (Occ ). The projections are based on averaging the results based on 1000 simulations from the full posterior distributions of the fitted models.