If we consider the trend lines based on our estimation of the possible rate of rise in the number of new cases assuming the trend of the growth in the number of cases were to continue as before, then we see from our plotting that by April 16th onward, we would see around 70 new cases everyday. But we do not see that, instead we have trickled down to around 18 cases in a day (some days may still be high, this is on an average).

What happened as a result of the lock down and what can we expect?

It is reasonable to believe that when a country goes for suppression of infection, then the aim is to bring down the effective reproduction number to below 1.0. In theory, if 100% people comply with the lock down provisions, then it should happen instantly. But that may not be the case. So, let’s say enough people comply with the provisions so that the effective reproduction number drops down to around 0.90 and the infection is deemed unsustainable. Then, we should expect a slow regression to zero cases eventually. But how slow or how fast? It cannot be as rapid as the cases upswung in the first place. Let’s say we study the trend of new cases for days 30 through 37 (in our case this would be something like we study from March 28 through April 6) and try to predict when we can expect the new cases will drop down to zero, so the total case count will steady with no new cases anymore.
Here is the figure: