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\begin{document}

\title{The jet stream and climate change~~~}



\author[1]{Wesley Schouw}%
\author[2,3]{Prof. Gunter Pauli}%
\affil[1]{independent researcher and author}%
\affil[2]{visiting professor at Politecnico di Torino (2001-2015), author of The Blue Economy}%
\affil[3]{
as contributing author. }%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 08, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
This article introduces factors contributing significantly to climate
change that have been largely neglected in both the scientific and
popular press. These factors have immediate implications for public
policy directed at slowing, halting and even reversing climate change
and its effects. This article argues that in addition to the known
contributions made by greenhouse gasses, climate change is also driven
by shifts in the patterns of global atmospheric circulation which are
influenced by persistent, large-scale vortices caused by the wake
turbulence left by commercial air traffic. Because this traffic is
highly concentrated along the most frequently traveled routes, the
vortices aircraft create have transformed into semi-permanent
atmospheric circulation which have widespread effects on how the
atmosphere traps and releases heat. It is also possible that these
changes alter the loss of water from the atmosphere. This would endanger
all life on earth, not just the human population. ~

\textbf{Plain Language Summary~}

\textbf{}This article examines the role of jet-induced vortices in
climate change. It suggests that these vortices, created by air traffic,
are major contributors to global warming by altering atmospheric
circulation patterns and by concentrating water vapor in the upper
atmosphere. This can cause changes in the frequency and intensity of
weather patterns, leading to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather
events.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy




\textbf{1. Introduction: Cause and effect}

Earth's climate is in the midst of dramatic changes. These include the
warming of the atmosphere and upper oceans, an increase in average sea
level, the loss of mass in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
\hyperref[csl:1]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{3} and the acidification of the
oceans. These changes have been more pervasive over the last four
decades than they have been at any other time in the last several
millennia, and they can be attributed to human activity with ``virtual
certainty'' \hyperref[csl:2]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{4}.

Not all shifts in global climatic indicators over that period are causes
of global warming, however. In particular, the increase in atmospheric
CO2 (\hyperref[csl:3]{(Petit et al. 1999)};~\hyperref[csl:4]{(Steffen et al. 2015)})\textsuperscript{5,6} is
typically described as one of the primary drivers of
warming~\hyperref[csl:5]{(Hallett 2002)}\textsuperscript{7}. And while those increases
are clearly tied to ongoing climate change, there are several
indications that they are results, rather than the cause, of recent
shifts in climatic conditions.

Rising CO2 levels could be a form of feedback from changes in global
wind patterns and in the atmospheric circulation of water vapor. Those
latter two factors---rather than CO2 increases themselves---may be
responsible for climate change, and both of them could be affected by a
common, and recent, shift in human activity. One factor that we regard
as widely underestimated is the persistently increasing frequency of
long-distance air travel in jet-propelled aircraft, whose jetwash
creates long-lasting vortices that affect wind patterns and atmospheric
circulation. For that reason, we submit that the vortices that compose
the jet wash could be key contributors to anthropogenic climate change.
That is the hypothesis introduced and defended in the present article.

The outline of the hypothesis is as follows. It is well established that
large-scale vortices, such as those caused by solar wind or other major
perturbations, affect global wind patterns
\hyperref[csl:6]{(Keller 2002)}\textsuperscript{8}. Vortices of this kind, especially
twinned and intertwined vortices that stretch for up to a thousand
kilometers at a time, have been observed to collect particles from
surrounding regions
(\hyperref[csl:7]{(Glassmeier and Heppner 1992)};\hyperref[csl:8]{(Schunk et al. 1994)})\textsuperscript{9,10}. This
accumulation of particles offers a rich concentration of condensation
nuclei that produces an accumulation of water vapor within and around
the vortices. This is relevant to climate change because it disrupts the
normal movement of water vapor caused by default patterns of atmospheric
circulation, and atmospheric water vapor is well understood as a
contributor to global warming \hyperref[csl:9]{(Solomon et al. 2010)}\textsuperscript{11}.
Against this background of established findings, this article will
substantiate the hypothesis, on the basis of several sources of
evidence, that vortices from jet-propelled aircraft could magnify and
modify the effects of existing atmospheric vortices and wind patterns
leading to an acceleration of climate change. If left unchecked and
uncorrected it is predicted that these never-ending strands of vortices
may channel water out of the atmosphere into the universe thereby
turning the Earth dry as the moon and Mars

\textbf{2. Vortices and global atmospheric circulation}

\par\null\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/index-html-m6e73fa411/index-html-m6e73fa411}
\caption{{Global Winds. Image created by the GEOS-5 Nature Run William~
Putman/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.~ \protect\hyperref[csl:10]{(missing citation)}
{\label{561370}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

Earth's weather systems are highly irregular
(Figure~{\ref{561370}}). They are characterized by
bands of wind activity running across the north Pacific, North America,
and the north Atlantic, as well as a series of similar bands connecting
the southern edges of Earth's continents
(\hyperref[csl:11]{(Mingalev et al. 2012)};\hyperref[csl:12]{(missing citation)})\textsuperscript{13,14}. This
presents a sharp contrast with other planets in the solar system, such
as Jupiter, which present highly active weather systems that are
nonetheless much more consistent. Jupiter itself has patterns of global
atmospheric circulation that form bands running perpendicular to the
axis of the planet \hyperref[csl:13]{(Porco 2003)}\textsuperscript{15}.~

The major factors that determine any planet's large-scale patterns of
atmospheric circulation involve the layout of land and water. Land
masses heat faster on the surface than bodies of water do, but store
heat less efficiently. They heat they absorb and release creates
updrafts, especially near coastlines. In addition to such
well-understood contributors, though, there are other crucial factors in
atmospheric dynamics. One that is typically omitted from the list is the
formation and persistence of large vortices. A vortex is in essence a
three-dimensional conveyor belt of air, which can be caused by either a
moving body (see Section 3) or by temperature changes, evaporation, and
other atmospheric changes. They can persist for long periods of time as
they are to some degree selfsustaining, thanks to their rotational
movement that reduces interaction with surrounding
fluids~\hyperref[csl:14]{(Barenghi et al. 1983)}\textsuperscript{16}.~

Vortices have always been part of Earth's weather systems. This is
because solids conduct heat better than liquids and gases because the
particles in solids are more closely packed together and because of
their relative lack of movement. Fluids move easily, and as they flow,
they allow heat to be moved from one point to another, making it easier
for the heat to dissipate. This is why land is hotter than the ocean.

Even the effects of land-water boundaries are mediated by vortex
formation. Solar heat is trapped in the uppermost layers of Earth's
landmasses. This causes air to rise faster above land than it does over
large bodies of water, resulting in the formation of vortices at
land/water boundaries. These vortices are often very large, stretching
for thousands of miles. Once formed, they are persistent, semi-stable
weather systems, and can drift across the planet much as storm systems
do. Their stability comes from the fact that they are thermodynamically
closed systems \hyperref[csl:15]{(Kreith and Margolis 1959)}\textsuperscript{17}, such that they
compensate for disruptions in their circulation by closing the break on
a less viscous medium.

The land masses on earth are highly porous due to their varied
composition (i.e., they are composed of different soils and geological
formations). This porosity allows ocean water, and water from large
bodies of fresh water, to percolate into landmasses. That water then
evaporates as it nears the surface, due to the storage of heat in earth
and rock, and that evaporation exacerbates the formation of vortices,
feeding into and filling them with water vapor.

\textbf{3. Vortices and global warming}

\par\null

\textbf{3.1. Vortices caused by human activity}

Recently, humans have created a novel means of forming large-scale
vortices capable of affecting atmospheric circulation. This technology
is jet-powered flight. Twin-engine aircraft, such as commercial
passenger jets, create vortices as they fly. Wake turbulence is
atmospheric disturbance that is formed by the passage of an aircraft
through fluid
(Figures~{\ref{170188}}~and~{\ref{803149}});
it has several components, of which the most noteworthy are vortices
formed by wingtips and by jetwash
~\hyperref[csl:16]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{18}. These vortices are sometimes
made visible by contrails, and can persist for long periods of time if
undisturbed. ~\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-2/Figure-2}
\caption{{Vortices left by an aircraft. Images reproduced from publicly~ available
video produced~~ by~ NASA using a C-5A
Airliner.~\protect\hyperref[csl:17]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{19}
{\label{170188}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-3/Figure-3}
\caption{{Vortices left by an aircraft. Images reproduced from publicly~ available
video produced by NASA~~~ using~ a Lockheed L-1011
Airliner\protect\hyperref[csl:18]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{20}
{\label{803149}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

In fact, aircraft create vortices at every point where there is a
difference in the speed at which air flows across one surface relative
to another. This happens at wingtips, for instance, where the air
flowing over different portions of the wingtip moves at different
speeds, creating a circular pattern of air movement as the wind
continues to move forward \hyperref[csl:19]{(Green 1995)}\textsuperscript{21}.

However, the major driving force behind the powerful vortices created by
modern aircraft is from jet wash, or the high-speed winds created by
exhaust propelled out of jet engines
\hyperref[csl:20]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{22}. Friction between these winds and
surrounding air creates powerful and persistent vortices. All aircraft
create two counter-rotating vortices, circulating in opposite directions
and pulling in surrounding air; as these expand following the passage of
the aircraft, they interact with existing wind patterns.

Wind also has the ability to change the speed and direction of a vortex
depending on the direction the vortex is rotating and wind is blowing.
And crucially, atmospheric circulation tends to flow in one direction
due to Earth's rotation. Thus, under the influence of existing wind
patterns, one of the vortices left by an aircraft's jet engines will
tend to be disrupted and will disperse, while the other will persist and
become stronger. Twin-engine aircraft are thus likely to be a major new
source of powerful, long-lasting atmospheric vortices. A common
misconception is that wingtips are the source of the destructive driving
force behind wake turbulence, this is incorrect. Although difference in
flow speed from the aerodynamics of the aircraft and friction between
the aircraft and the air surrounding it will cause vortices to form, the
power behind the hazardous vortices that follow behind modern aircraft
can be attributed to high speed jet exhaust winds. The same effects can
be seen in a boat's wake. For example, a small tugboat pulling a large
ship will have a much larger wake than the non-powered ship itself will.
The friction between the jet of water that is forced through the
propellers creates powerful vortices in comparison to the displacement
of water from the ship. Think of the Earth's atmosphere as a lake. This
is why, for instance, flocks of birds are able to fly in large
V-formations with small spacing between each bird whereas jet powered
aircraft cannot.

\textbf{3.2. Wake turbulence, water vapor, and global warming}

The significance of aircraft-produced vortices is that they last long
enough to accumulate (\hyperref[csl:21]{(Jacquin 2005)};
\hyperref[csl:22]{(Spalart 1998)})\textsuperscript{23,24}. Specifically, along high
traffic routes channeled within narrow corridors, the passage of many
twin-engine aircraft results in hundreds of vortices being formed within
just a few hours \hyperref[csl:23]{(Sausen et al. 1998)}\textsuperscript{25}. These vortices
can combine, creating massive vortices on the scale of those that form
naturally at land-water boundaries. More importantly, as long as air
traffic continues to flow along a given route, the vortex there will
consistently be reinforced (Figure {\ref{616266}}). ~\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-41/Figure-4}
\caption{{a) original image reproduced from publicly available video produced by
EUMETSAT~\protect\hyperref[csl:24]{(missing citation)}\textsuperscript{2} (timestamp: 00:23)~ b)
locations of sustained vortices highlighted.~
\url{https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11541609.v1} ~
{\label{616266}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

These long-lasting, large-scale vortices differ from naturally occurring
ones in several key ways. The most important of these is atmospheric
location: aircraft-produced vortices form at approximately 30,000 feet,
which is the average cruising altitude of commercial airliners.

This is also the altitude at which atmospheric water vapor typically
condenses. This condensation is exacerbated by the presence of large
vortices, because they tend to be saturated with condensation nuclei
such as CO2, pollen, and dust swept up from the Earth's surface. Water
vapor latches onto these, and is transported up and down the vortex
lines, which extend from aircraft's points of origin to their
destinations. Because the temperature of the exhaust fumes is extremely
high \hyperref[csl:25]{(Eckbreth et al. 1984)}\textsuperscript{25}, they tend to melt ice
molecules from clouds as aircraft pass, increasing the vapor available
for condensation. In fact, ice molecules can be seen entering but not
exiting the vortex as they are vaporized

Speaking generally, the atmosphere holds more water vapor suspended over
a given square meter of the Earth's surface at higher altitudes than it
does at lower altitudes, just because the available volume of air
increases exponentially as one travels upward. This is why
aircraft-produced vortices could very well affect weather patterns: they
redistribute water vapor and condensation nuclei, concentrating them
along high-traffic flight paths, producing a consequent concentration of
condensation and it is submitted that this phenomenon carries the
inherent risk of losing water molecules from Earth's atmospheric system.
This risk to all life on Earth needs urgent attention through extensive
research and precautionary policy measures.

\par\null

\textbf{4. Evidence of the atmospheric effects of wake turbulence}

\par\null

\textbf{4.1. ``Fallstreak'' or ``hole-punch'' clouds}

The above logical model is built based on the following considerations.
First, the existence of fallstreak clouds, which represent a
reduced-scale version of the same effect. Fallstreak clouds, also known
as hole-punch clouds, are examples of vortices created by aircraft as
they pass through the cloud layer (Figure
{\ref{968910}}). Surrounding clouds are drawn toward
the vortices, and, because these both contain high concentrations of
potential condensation nuclei and are of sufficiently high temperature
to melt cloud-born ice molecules, they produce condensation that falls
to Earth as rain, snow, or hail (\hyperref[csl:26]{(Heymsfield et al. 2010)};
\hyperref[csl:27]{(Heymsfield et al. 2011)})\textsuperscript{26,27}. ~

\par\null\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-5/Figure-5}
\caption{{File:HolePunchCloud.jpg. (2018, July 19).~\emph{Wikimedia Commons, the
free media repository}. Retrieved 19:03, November 28, 2019
from~\url{https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:HolePunchCloud.jpg\&oldid=311827228}.
{\label{968910}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

A related phenomenon involves the increasing number of cumulus clouds
being reported and photographed by the general public. This is another
clear sign that water vapor is being driven up to higher altitudes than
normal, allowing the sun to illuminate them even after it has set from
the observer's perspective.

\par\null

\textbf{4.2. Atmospheric magnification effects}

A second observation building up our argument involves visible
distortion caused by the increases in water vapor density in the upper
atmosphere that are caused by aircraft-produced vortices. Water vapor at
different altitudes creates atmospheric disturbances, and these can
focus the sun in a manner similar to a magnifying glass or a Fresnel
lens (\hyperref[csl:28]{(Owens 1967)}; \hyperref[csl:29]{(Tang and Munkelwitz 1994)})\textsuperscript{28,29}.

This has two consequences of particular interest. First, the distortions
are sometimes visible as parahelia in the upper atmosphere (Figure
{\ref{549655}}), due to the multilens effect caused by
the presence of water vapor at higher-than-normal altitudes
\hyperref[csl:30]{(McDowell 1974)}\textsuperscript{30}. Second, it increases global
surface temperatures in certain areas and decreases it in others.

~\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-6/Figure-6}
\caption{{File:Fargo Sundogs 2 18 09.jpg. (2014, November 22).~\emph{Wikimedia
Commons, the free media repository}. Retrieved 19:02, November 28, 2019
from~\url{https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fargo\_Sundogs\_2\_18\_09.jpg\&oldid=140238608}.
{\label{549655}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\par\null

\textbf{4.3. Sea ice carving and air traffic}

Finally, patterns of ``carving,'' or gradual erosion, in the sea ice
surrounding the Arctic Circle and the Antarctic ice shelf closely follow
global air traffic routes. See figure {\ref{443705}},
in which circular carvings of sea ice are visible running parallel to
the routes of the most southern commercial flights.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-7/Figure-7}
\caption{\selectlanguage{ngerman}{a) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Image by Reto Stöckli (land surface,
shallow water, clouds). Enhancements by Robert Simmon (ocean color,
compositing, 3D globes, animation). Data and technical support: MODIS
Land Group; MODIS Science Data Support Team; MODIS Atmosphere Group;
MODIS Ocean Group Additional data: USGS EROS Data Center (topography);
USGS Terrestrial Remote Sensing Flagstaff Field Center (Antarctica);
Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (city lights)
from~\url{https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/images/57730/the-blue-marble-land-surface-ocean-color-and-sea-ice}~b)~Wikimedia
Commons contributors, ``File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png,''
Wikimedia Commons, the free media
repository,~\url{https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png\&oldid=374115880}~c)
Southern most routes and sea ice markings highlighted.~
\url{https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11566707.v1}
{\label{443705}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{ngerman}

\par\null

This effect, too, could also be attributed to the action of vortices.
When atmospheric vortices break ---which happens naturally as they
weaken over time, or are disrupted by other weather patterns--- the
broken ``ends'' of the vortex cylinder will reconnect themselves either
to the rest of the vortex or to a solid surface, whichever is
nearer~\hyperref[csl:31]{(Brady and Szoke 1989)}\textsuperscript{31}. When land is the closer
of the two, vortices touch down (as happens in the formation of
tornadoes), and the heat and water vapor they carry are delivered to
nearby surfaces. When those surfaces are ice, they melt. ~

\textbf{5. Conclusion}

Climate change is an increasingly urgent economic, environmental and
social issue across the globe. It is imperative now more than ever that
scientists identify all possible factors that contribute to global
warming. It permits to mitigate and eventually reverse the disastrous
impact created by various technologies and human
activities~\hyperref[csl:32]{(Hoeppe 2016)}\textsuperscript{32}. The present article
has introduced the argument that commercial flights between major
international airports must be studied in detail since these are
suspected to figure among key causes of observed changes in climatic
indicators, due to their effects on the formation of particle-laden
vortices that affect the atmospheric distribution of water vapor.
Scientists, along with the industry and policy makers have neglected
this factor. Worse, the logic exposed in this article indicates that it
is not just the burning of the fuel and the subsequent greenhouse gas
emissions that need to be abated, the creation of the vortices
themselves with fossil- or biofuel is increasing the risk of
irreversible impact on life on Earth. Although there is a need for a lot
more study and experimentation, the logic built up in this first
approach confirms that this physical effect (as opposed to a chemical
effect) impacting climate change merits more and urgent attention.~

The authors understand that the logic outlined contradicts some extant
models of the causes of climate change, such as the suggestion that CO2
is primarily responsible for rising temperatures. However, this article
suggests that, instead, climate change may also be driven primarily by
shifts in patterns of global atmospheric circulation powered by
persistent, large-scale vortices mainly caused by the vortices left by
commercial air traffic. Because this traffic is so densely concentrated
along the most highly-traveled routes, the vortices become
semi-permanent, and their effects on atmospheric circulation are
suspected to cause widespread changes in how the atmosphere traps and
releases heat.

This revised view of the factors causing climate change has immediate
implications for public policy especially when it comes to aircraft
design which needs to go beyond the mere choice of efficiency and fuel
type. If it is really directed at halting or slowing climate change, and
at ameliorating its effects then engine design that secures propulsion
without vortex generation requires fundamental innovations that are
disruptive for a monopolistic market highly resistant to change. In
addition, transforming commercial air travel, and shifting high-traffic
routes to avoid bodies of sea ice and other vulnerable locations, could
be the first primary goals of parties concerned about the effects of
climate change. However, it is indispensable that the hypothesis
outlined can be substantiated with further extensive research and
precautionary policy measures.

\par\null

\textbf{6.~Data Availability}

All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this
published article
\url{https://authorea.com/users/275330/articles/391489/master/folder}

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\section*{References}\sloppy
\phantomsection
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\end{document}

