Conclusions
The sensitivity of hydrologic process and water balance to changes in
climatic and land use conditions varied from watershed to watershed. In
our study, two hydrological models fitted for mountain and lowland
artificial watersheds respectively were applied in Lake Taihu basin to
evaluate the seasonal and annual characteristics of hydrological
variables and their driving factors, which were not fully understood in
previous studies. We found that climate change caused a larger increase
of annual runoff in mountain watersheds than that in lowland artificial
watersheds, which opposite to the influence of land use change. The
scenario of converting cultivate land to residential land increased the
discharge mostly comparing to other land use scenarios. In addition,
these variations were most notable in May in mountain watersheds,
comparing to rice seasons in lowland artificial watersheds. Runoff
variation in mountain watersheds were most attributed to climate change.
However, the influence of land use change was equally important in the
lowland artificial watersheds. Land use change can enhance climate
impacts on water balance in lowland artificial watersheds. This study
improved our understandings on the different hydrological responses to
single and synergetic changes in climate and land use varying watershed
characteristics, and can thus support water managers to project the
future variation of hydrology and water resources in management
practice.