Outcome Number of studies Risk of bias Indirectness Imprecision Inconsistency Other considerations Summary effect size/outcome Certainty of evidence
Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies Modeling studies
Incidence
2 36,45
not serious
directa
precise
NA
None
Wen-Tao et al. state that stronger control measures are more effective: By reducing the contact rate and infection efficiency by >50% they predict 3,088 cases within 3 months in Wuhan. By reducing it only by <45% they predict 4,719 cases. Hsie et al. state that quarantine is effective to reduce incident cases (461 SARS cases averted, with a low quarantine rate of 4·7%)
Low
Onward transmission No evidence No evidence No evidence No evidence No evidence No evidence No evidence No evidence
Mortality
2 36,45
not serious
directa
precise
NA
None
Wen-Tao et al. state that stronger control measures reduce mortality: By reducing the contact rate and infection efficiency by >50% they predict 443 deaths out of 11·5 million inhabitants in Wuhan within 3 months, by reducing it only to <45% they predict 739 deaths. Effective to reduce mortality (62 SARS deaths averted, with a low quarantine rate of 4·7% in Taiwan)
Low
Resource use
2 35,38
not serious
indirecta
precise
NA
None
Gupta et al. state that at a transmission rate of 8%, the total savings of quarantine over isolation alone varies between 279–232 million Canadian dollars (reference year 2003). The earlier that effective quarantine measures are implemented, the greater the savings are. Mubayi et al. came to similar conclusions and state that increasing the quarantine effort results in lower overall costs over the entire outbreak in all three assessed quarantine strategies.
Very low