4. Discussion
The results of the MNL model
suggest that twelve variables for AFS and five variables for ACS had
significant effects on the adoption decision with respect to CAS. The
effects of three variables namely education, age, and origin are
statistically insignificant. The negative sign of age of household head
suggests that young farmers are more likely to adopt agroforestry
systems compared to their elderly neighbours. In other words, the
likelihood of adopting an agroforestry system decreases with the
increasing age of farmers. This may be because elderly people are more
risk-averse compared to the young people; and, therefore, the former
expects immediate returns, which is not possible from the tree-based
practices (Adesina et al., 2000). Similarly, education (years of
schooling) of farmers have a positive association with the adoption of
both AFS and ACS. This is because education may contribute to understand
better and adopt a new technology (Adesina and Chianu, 2002).
Twelve variables have significant effects in the case of AFS adoption.
The sign and p value of the variable ‘sex of household head’ suggests
that male farmers prefer AFS practice compared to their female
counterparts. The existing literature also shows that gender differences
playing a role in adopting new practices. For example, in studies
carried out in Cameroon and Nigeria, it was found that male farmers were
more likely to use alley farming than women (Adesina et al., 2000;
Adesina and Chianu, 2002; Fabiyi et al., 1991). In Nepalese mid-hills
also, a positive association between male-headed households and the
adoption of agroforestry practice was found (Neupane et al., 2002). The
sign of the coefficient of the variable ‘household size’ (economically
active) indicates that the likelihood of adopting AFS decreases with the
increased household size. In other words, the chance of adopting
agroforestry is higher when the household size is relatively low. This
holds true because tree-based farming is a less labour-intensive
practice in the long-run (Cockfield, 2005), but other agriculture
practices are labour demanding for smallholders (Rai et al., 2018). A
recent study by Cedamon et al. (2018) from Nepal’s mid-hills also
reinforces our findings. They argue that the emerging remittance economy
of the country has increased the outmigration of Nepalese youths
resulting in a short supply of labour force, which made the Nepalese
farmers practice less labour-intensive cultivation practice such as
agroforestry.
The results show that landholding size was the most influencing factor
to determine the adoption of agroforestry. The likelihood of shifting
from CAS to agro-forestry practices increases with the size of
landholdings. This may be because large holding farmers may prefer to
increase their investments in new land management practices such as
agroforestry since they can take risks and wait for the returns (Amsalu
and De Graaff, 2007). Besides, large holdings can be translated as an
opportunity to new practices (Nowak, 1987). Having a private source of
irrigation is positively associated with the farmers’ decision of AFS
adoption over conventional agriculture. A similar result was found in a
study carried out in Himachal, India by Sood and Mitchell (2009) and in
Burkina Faso by Ayuk (1997).
The results also suggest that off-farm-based households are likely to
adopt the tree-based farming system such as AFS compared to their
neighbours with farm-based livelihoods. The reason may be that the
off-farm income helps farmers take a risk as it may serve as a safety
net in case of crop failure resulting from sudden natural calamities and
other unexpected events. Adopting a tree-based farming practice,
therefore, may not be an attractive option to those families who require
immediate returns, as farmers have to wait a long time to harvest trees.
Until the tree crop harvest, farmers have to take a considerable loss in
agriculture production from the time of establishment, which a
subsistence farmer can hardly be able to cover the loss. Similar results
were found in the Gunnungkidul region, Indonesia that the households
with off-farm income sources are in a tree raising practice than those
with farm-based households (Sabastian et al., 2014).
Similarly, ‘livestock herd size’ was found to positively influence a
farmer’s decision about adopting the tree-based farming system. It
suggests that an increase in livestock herd size results in the
increased likelihood of adopting AFS. In Nepal, trees are grown in the
farmland for fodder, fuelwood and timber. Fodder is a good source of
livestock feed in the study area. Trees provide green fodder during the
dry season of the year, which is very important for the milking
livestock to maintain milk production throughout the year. Table 2
reports that the tree densities and livestock herd size of the farming
systems are statistically different. AFS farmers raised a higher number
of trees and larger livestock herd compared to the ACS farmers. In the
mid-hills of Nepal, the number of livestock was the most significant
determinant of agroforestry adoption (Neupane et al., 2002).
Extension service has also positive impacts on adopting tree-based
farming systems. The AFS adoption rate increases with the number of
extension services. In general, extension workers provide information to
farmers and help to clarify the doubts that the farmers may have. They
motivate farmers and increase their confidence to adopt to new
practices. This finding corroborates the existing literature (Adesina
and Chianu, 2002; Ison and Russell, 2007; Lohr and Park, 1994; Paudel
and Thapa, 2004).
In addition, the proximity to the government-managed forests also
determines the adoption of tree-based practices. The results indicate
the likelihood of adopting tree-based farming systems increases with the
distance to forests. When farmers easily get their daily needs of
fuelwood, fodder, timber and food fulfilled from the nearby forest, they
are reluctant to tree planting on their farmland (Rai et al., 2017). On
the contrary, the distant farmers have to spend more time in the
collection of these products from the forest and therefore they are
inclined to tree planting on their farms.