Probability of ASF introduction into South Korea via the legal import of pig products
The total annual probability of ASF introduction into South Korea via the legal import of pig products was found to be very low, and was estimated to be 1.59×10-10(1.55~1.64×10-10 95% CI), which approximately corresponds to an outbreak every 6.27×109 years (6.10~6.47×109 years 95% CI). Among the 20 assessed countries, the mean annual probability of ASF introduction into South Korea by Poland had the highest contribution (87.9%) followed by New Zealand (4.8%) and Sweden (1.4%) in descending order of probability (Figure 2).
Maps with 5 categories based on Jenks natural break optimization with the probability of ASF introduction into South Korea via both pathways are shown in Figure 3. There was a slight difference among the monthly distributions by country via the both routes (Data not shown).