Probability of ASF introduction into South Korea via the
legal import of pig products
The total annual probability of ASF introduction into South Korea via
the legal import of pig products was found to be very low, and was
estimated to be 1.59×10-10(1.55~1.64×10-10 95% CI), which
approximately corresponds to an outbreak every
6.27×109 years
(6.10~6.47×109 years 95% CI).
Among the 20 assessed countries,
the mean annual probability of ASF introduction into South Korea by
Poland had the highest contribution (87.9%) followed by New Zealand
(4.8%) and Sweden (1.4%) in descending order of probability (Figure
2).
Maps with 5 categories based on
Jenks natural break optimization with the probability of ASF
introduction into South Korea via both pathways are shown in Figure 3.
There was a slight difference among the monthly distributions by country
via the both routes (Data not shown).