Exposure assessment
The probability of an imported ASFV infected pig coming into contact
with other domestic pigs in the importing country and resulting in ASFV
transmission (Pex ) was estimated as follows:
Pex = Pq + [(1 -Pq ) × Pu ]
In the formulation, Pq is the probability that an
imported ASFV-infected pig is not quarantined, Puis the probability that the pig is not detected during the quarantine
process. The former was based on the quarantine procedure of the USDA
(Herrera-Ibatá et al. , 2017) and the latter on the probability
that a CSF infected pig is not detected base on the clinical signs
during quarantine (Martínez-López et al. , 2009), as both diseases
have similar clinical manifestations (Sánchez-Vizcaíno, 2006). The
parameters and descriptions are shown in Table 2.