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Acknowledgements All authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the Welsh Government and Higher Education Funding Council for Wales through the Sêr Cymru National Research Network for Low Carbon, Energy and Environment (SCNR-LCEE). We thank Alison Kingston-Smith, Dimitra Loka, Felicity Hayes, and Mike Humphreys for initial discussions on this project. We also acknowledge the valuable feedback provided by David Thomas and the SCNR-LCEE Management Board on the weather scenarios used here.
Figures and tables:
Main Text:
Figure 1: Change in the annual frequency of threshold exceedance between the period 1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2016. Positive numbers denote an increase and negative numbers denote a decrease. A value of 1.0 corresponds to one additional event per year and a value of - 1.0 corresponds to one fewer event per year. Areas of significant change (p<0.05) are denoted by hatching.
Figure 2: Change in the frequency of spells of (a) winter growing conditions and (b) spring dry spells between the period 1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2016. Significant areas of change (p<0.05) denoted by hatching.
Figure 3: Total area (ha) of vulnerable ecosystem category exposed to a significant increase in the frequency of a) single stress event types and b) multiple stress event types.
Figure 4: Co-occurrence of a significant increase in the frequency of threshold exceedance of each event type at the p < 0.05 significant level (a) and the interaction with vulnerable land use category: agriculture (b), woodlands (c), Conservation areas (d) and carbon stores (e).