The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) in China at the end of 2019 brought with
it uncertainty as to whether it would bring an increase in maternal,
fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. This uncertainty drove fear;
understandable given the high case fatality rate associated with
previous severe respiratory illness causing coronaviruses.
Given the novel nature of SARS-CoV-2, clinicians and women and their
families rely primarily on limited information from case reports and
case series to inform their decisions about pregnancy management. Early
evidence from these sources demonstrated a tendency toward preterm
delivery mainly as a consequence of elective interventions (Della Gatta
et al. Am J Obstet Gynecol, 2020, Vol.223, p36-41), which are likely to
have been exacerbated by the uncertainty of COVID-19 on pregnancy and
neonatal outcomes.
The reliance on research reports, case series and case reports
continues. However, such reports are at higher risk of bias, including
publication bias. Concerns have also been expressed about the potential
of reporting of same people with COVID-19 across different reports
(Bauchner et al. JAMA, 2020, Vol.323, p1256). Such reporting leads to
inaccurate estimates of the impact of the disease on outcomes, which is
aggravated when an evidence base is relatively small, evolving and
critical to informing good care decisions.
In this issue, Thornton et al. report a review of case reports and case
series of the risk of the neonate becoming infected with SARS-COV-2 by
mode of birth, type of infant feeding and mother-infant interaction
(BJOG 2020 xxxx). Their findings lead them to conclude that vaginal
delivery, breast and are safe in the context of COVID-19 disease. But,
what interests me equally in this paper is their approach to reducing
the risk of duplicate reports in estimating disease impact.
First, their data sources included a daily PubMed search supplemented by
alerts from experts on social media; daily searches of three electronic
databases including the Maternity and Infant Care Database and citation
tracking. Second, geo-coding of data to unique distinct locations. Here,
in response to reviewer feedback, which the authors refreshingly
acknowledge, the team invited a native speaker of Chinese familiar with
health institutes in Wuhan to provide contextual information to maximise
the likelihood of correct site identification (which did result in some
geo-coding revisions). Third, they attempted to identify sites unnamed
in reports using author affiliations, which ultimately did not provide
the assurances they needed to be confident in retaining some reports.
The accuracy of inferences drawn from research reports, case series and
case reports is enhanced when authors report clearly if and when any
patients are reported in other reports and when processes to minimise
erroneous repeated inclusion of the same patients. Thornton et al.’s
paper is informative clinically but is equally interesting in its
flexing of methods to iteratively address an evolving evidence base and
minimise uncertainty. Such approaches may lack the sophistication of
techniques applied to larger evidence bases yet are critical to
informing decisions early in an evolving evidence base. Further
development of the processes may inform future pandemic readiness.
No disclosures: A completed disclosure of interest form is
available to view online as supporting information.