Corresponding author: MA (madihaasghar315@gmail.com)
As the world past the few months of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, the
number of new cases continues to rise in several countries. By July 15,
the confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 13,119,239, with 573,752 confirmed
deaths worldwide.3
There has been much speculation about if and when the second wave will
crash down the earth and whether it will be more severe than the first
crest. Based on the past pandemic experiences, the virus can return with
even more lethal force, hence it is assumed that second wave of the
pandemic could be more lethal. Epidemiologist assumed that COVID-19 is a
new virus and it is not clear that either this pandemic will see second
wave or not. They are studying past models to predict the coronavirus
pattern and causes but the virus is novel, has its own viral
behavior.4 It is also believed that the first wave
will continue to spread with daily cases and deaths elevating and
falling until the population attains herd immunity which seems unlikely
without a vaccine widely available.
Over a century ago, a respiratory infection called as 1918 Spanish flu
pandemic had far more devastating second wave and caused huge mass
mortality.2 The second wave had been triggered by
soldiers travelling across the areas, a probable virus mutation and the
states failed to impose the physical distancing measures. Moreover,
public frustration was the main cause in response to mandatory use of
masks in 1918 that leads to protests for Anti-Mask League in San
Francisco causing 45,000 confirmed flu cases with the deaths of over
3,000 individuals. Similarly, in Brazil, Spain, Germany and Argentina,
hundreds of the people protested against stay at home orders being
issued by the state and these protests caused the number of cases to
bounce back. Currently, the mass protests in U.S, The Black Lives
Matter, are under study to see if there will be a corresponding
elevation in the cases. Same happened in Philadelphia in 1918, the
massive parade celebrating the end of the war which resulted in huge
outbreak. Recently, new outbreaks have reported in South Korea, Ireland,
China, Germany and Singapore. The second wave will potentially
overburden the healthcare sector.
Coronavirus spreads more easily from one person to another. In summer,
people are more outdoor and able to stay apart which significantly
decreases transmission but in winter, people will take more activities
indoors and the virus can thrive in enclosed environments. Similarly,
the schools and offices closure has also kept people apart, therefore,
the reopening will also increase the risk of social gathering.
Scientists have urged that the COVID-19 can last for more 3 years and
can be halted when 60 to 70 % of the world population is
immune.1 As there is less chance that vaccines will be
clinically available by this year, it is expected that the first wave of
the pandemic will be followed by repetitive smaller waves that are
likely to be appeared consistently. The waves are also expected to be
geographically distinct and their intensity will depend on the regional
control measures such avoiding social gathering. The worst scenario of
larger second wave before the end of 2020 followed by smaller waves is
expected. Such predications are based on the trends exhibited during
influenza pandemic of 1918-19 which resulted about 50 million deaths,
and 2009-10 pandemic of H1N1.2 Based on previous
models, we must be prepared for at least 18-24 months of COVID-19
activity. With the wanes of pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 is expected to
continue circulation in the human population and synchronize to seasonal
pattern decreased severity overtime, like other less pathogenic
coronaviruses i.e. betacoronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 and influenza
pandemics.1
In case of COVID-19, some fear that ease in restrictions and public
ignorance regarding preventive measures may make the second wave of
cases greater than the initial bursts. With the countries planning to
ease restrictions imposed due to coronavirus but there is a concern
about resurgence or second wave. Experts worry if the efforts of social
distancing, wearing masks, hand washing and symptoms screening are not
sustained, larger number of cases are likely to occur which will lead to
reimposing self-quarantine polices. Some experts are hoping to gaze into
the future by observing the behavior of previous respiratory illnesses.
For example, influenza and common cold seem to be linked to the cool
weather during the colder months. Same holds true for other types of
seasonal coronaviruses and may also apply to SARS-CoV 2. The low
humidity in the colder weather causes the virus to spread better.
COVID-19 will be the part of future but whether the second wave will be
a devastating tsunami or just a ripple may hinge on continued social
distancing, masking, widespread testing, hospital preparation and
vaccine development.
References:
- Kissler, Stephen M., et al. ”Projecting the transmission dynamics of
SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.” Science 368.6493
(2020): 860-868.
- Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R., and Daniel Krewski. ”Reviewing the
history of pandemic influenza: understanding patterns of emergence and
transmission.” Pathogens 5.4 (2016): 66.
- World Health Organization. 2020. https://www.who.int/news-room/
fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue/. Accessed July 18,
2020.
- Albery, G. F., Eskew, E. A., Ross, N., & Olival, K. J. (2020).
Predicting the global mammalian viral sharing network using
phylogeography. Nature communications , 11 (1), 1-9.