Tables and figures
Based on the collected data, the estimated number of Eurasian lynx and its distribution in Poland (in 16 voivodeships and 23 national parks), are shown in Table 1. The number of Eurasian lynx in Poland in the years 1975-1991 and 1982-1997 we have illustrated in Table 2.
The number of Eurasian lynx in Poland in the years 2004-2018 and, additionally, the Holt method predictions through 2027, we have shown in Fig. 1. Figs 2-9 illustrate the number of Eurasian lynx in each voivodeships in the years 2004-2018, with the Holt method predicting population through 2027.
Results
Every year since 2000, the Central Statistical Office of Poland issues a summary of all wild animals living in the country. From environmental protection thematic area obtained accurate data. In 2000, was recorded 285 lynx, in 2001 – 150, in 2002 – 171 and a year later – 192 lynx. Since 2004, we can notice systematic increase of lynx’s number in Poland. However, lynx are absent from 6 of 16 Polish voivodeships (Lubuskie, Łódzkie, Opolskie, Świętokrzyskie, Wielkopolskie and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships). Furthermore, decreasing trend has been observed in Kujawsko-pomorskie and Mazowieckie voivodeships. The highest number of lynx is noticed in Podkarpackie Voivodeship. The last collected data indicates that in 2017 were 432 lynx in Poland but without divisions into voivodships and in 2018 – 437 lynx (Table 1).
The numerical status of the lynx expressed in numerical ranges has been averaged. Due to migrations and secretive lifestyle of wild animals, the data should be treated as an estimate of the population size of the species.
The data from CSOP were the determinant for the Holt’s prediction (exponential smoothing model). It was used to estimate the number of lynx in Poland and, likewise, in individual voivodeships. Nationwide, the results indicate that the lynx’s quantity will rise to 538 individuals by 2027 (Fig. 1). The increase of lynx’s number will be noticeable in Lubelskie, Małopolskie, Podkarpackie, Pomorskie and Śląskie voivodeships (Figs. 3, 4, 5, 7, 8), according to the Holt model, while a decrease will be seen in Podlaskie and Warmińsko-mazurskie voivodeships (Figs. 6 and 9). A constant number of lynx will be observed in Dolnośląskie Voivodeship (Fig. 2), for the next 10 years.
It should be noted that this model does not taking into account random factors, which may affect actual population estimates, such as diseases, natural disasters, lack of food, destruction of habitats and environment.