where: \(y_{t}\) is the Eurasian lynx population size for the \(t\)th period, \({\hat{y}}_{t}\) is the Eurasian lynx population size for the\(t\)th period adjusted for trend, \(\alpha\) is the smoothing constant between 0 and 1, \(c_{t}\) is the trend adjustment increment for the \(t\)th period and: