Tables and figures
Based on the collected data, the estimated number of Eurasian lynx and
its distribution in Poland (in 16 voivodeships and 23 national parks),
are shown in Table 1. The number of Eurasian lynx in Poland in the years
1975-1991 and 1982-1997 we have illustrated in Table 2.
The number of Eurasian lynx in Poland in the years 2004-2018 and,
additionally, the Holt method predictions through 2027, we have shown in
Fig. 1. Figs 2-9 illustrate the number of Eurasian lynx in each
voivodeships in the years 2004-2018, with the Holt method predicting
population through 2027.
Results
Every year since 2000, the Central Statistical Office of Poland issues a
summary of all wild animals living in the country. From environmental
protection thematic area obtained accurate data. In 2000, was recorded
285 lynx, in 2001 – 150, in 2002 – 171 and a year later – 192 lynx.
Since 2004, we can notice systematic increase of lynx’s number in
Poland. However, lynx are absent from 6 of 16 Polish voivodeships
(Lubuskie, Łódzkie, Opolskie, Świętokrzyskie, Wielkopolskie and
Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships). Furthermore, decreasing trend has been
observed in Kujawsko-pomorskie and Mazowieckie voivodeships. The highest
number of lynx is noticed in Podkarpackie Voivodeship. The last
collected data indicates that in 2017 were 432 lynx in Poland but
without divisions into voivodships and in 2018 – 437 lynx (Table 1).
The numerical status of the lynx expressed in numerical ranges has been
averaged. Due to migrations and secretive lifestyle of wild animals, the
data should be treated as an estimate of the population size of the
species.
The data from CSOP were the determinant for the Holt’s prediction
(exponential smoothing model). It was used to estimate the number of
lynx in Poland and, likewise, in individual voivodeships. Nationwide,
the results indicate that the lynx’s quantity will rise to 538
individuals by 2027 (Fig. 1). The increase of lynx’s number will be
noticeable in Lubelskie, Małopolskie, Podkarpackie, Pomorskie and
Śląskie voivodeships (Figs. 3, 4, 5, 7, 8), according to the Holt model,
while a decrease will be seen in Podlaskie and Warmińsko-mazurskie
voivodeships (Figs. 6 and 9). A constant number of lynx will be observed
in Dolnośląskie Voivodeship (Fig. 2), for the next 10 years.
It should be noted that this model does not taking into account random
factors, which may affect actual population estimates, such as diseases,
natural disasters, lack of food, destruction of habitats and
environment.