5 CONCLUSIONS
In this study, we finally identified 25 rare, endangered and/or national
protected species with high simulation accuracy, belonging to 23 genera
and 19 families. The average AUC value of each species was from 0.80 to
1.00, which confirmed that the simulation precision of the MaxEnt model
on each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential
distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated, mainly
distributed in the central-western, central-eastern and northern regions
of Northwest Yunnan. Besides, the potential distribution areas of these
species were between 826.33 km2 and 44963.53
km2. Additionally, the annual precipitation (Bio12),
precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) and population density (Pop)
had a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their
contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86% and 17.95%, respectively.
Furthermore, the goodness of fit R 2 and AIC
value of the water model were 0.88 and 7703.82, respectively, which
demonstrated the water factor largely influenced the potential
distribution of these target species. These results would contribute to
a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical
distribution pattern of some key higher plant species in Northwest
Yunnan, and would be helpful for implementing long-term conservation and
reintroduction for these species.