5 CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we finally identified 25 rare, endangered and/or national protected species with high simulation accuracy, belonging to 23 genera and 19 families. The average AUC value of each species was from 0.80 to 1.00, which confirmed that the simulation precision of the MaxEnt model on each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated, mainly distributed in the central-western, central-eastern and northern regions of Northwest Yunnan. Besides, the potential distribution areas of these species were between 826.33 km2 and 44963.53 km2. Additionally, the annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) and population density (Pop) had a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86% and 17.95%, respectively. Furthermore, the goodness of fit R 2 and AIC value of the water model were 0.88 and 7703.82, respectively, which demonstrated the water factor largely influenced the potential distribution of these target species. These results would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical distribution pattern of some key higher plant species in Northwest Yunnan, and would be helpful for implementing long-term conservation and reintroduction for these species.