Future predicted interactions
The magnitude of the effect of refuge on species richness and abundance
of predators is expected to increase by up to 33% and 38%,
respectively, in areas where precipitation is predicted to decline
(e.g., French Guiana and Mexico). In contrast, with increasing
precipitation predicted for sites in Europe, USA, and Borneo, the
effects of refuge on predator species richness and abundance are
expected to decrease by up to 25% and 34%, respectively (Fig. 4a, Fig.
S8).
Future scenarios of the influence of temperature on refuge usage by
larger predators depended on the temperature component evaluated (i.e.,
temperature variability [bio7] versus mean annual temperature
[bio1]). Maps of effects for predator biomass revealed weaker
changes in response to temperature variability over time, compared to
responses to precipitation (Fig. 4b). Indeed, key bioclimatic variables
reflecting precipitation (e.g., bio14) are predicted to be more variable
over time than key temperature variables (e.g., bio7) (Appendix S2).
This weak effect is manifested as smaller differences in future versus
current effect sizes (ranging from a decrease of up to 2.3% and an
increase of up to 6.7%), likely stemming from the fact that temperature
variability itself will change little in the future. However, under a
scenario of increasing mean annual temperature, a general warming is
predicted to decrease (6-17%) the effect of shelters on larger
predators, especially in Europe (Fig. S9).