Future predicted interactions
The magnitude of the effect of refuge on species richness and abundance of predators is expected to increase by up to 33% and 38%, respectively, in areas where precipitation is predicted to decline (e.g., French Guiana and Mexico). In contrast, with increasing precipitation predicted for sites in Europe, USA, and Borneo, the effects of refuge on predator species richness and abundance are expected to decrease by up to 25% and 34%, respectively (Fig. 4a, Fig. S8).
Future scenarios of the influence of temperature on refuge usage by larger predators depended on the temperature component evaluated (i.e., temperature variability [bio7] versus mean annual temperature [bio1]). Maps of effects for predator biomass revealed weaker changes in response to temperature variability over time, compared to responses to precipitation (Fig. 4b). Indeed, key bioclimatic variables reflecting precipitation (e.g., bio14) are predicted to be more variable over time than key temperature variables (e.g., bio7) (Appendix S2). This weak effect is manifested as smaller differences in future versus current effect sizes (ranging from a decrease of up to 2.3% and an increase of up to 6.7%), likely stemming from the fact that temperature variability itself will change little in the future. However, under a scenario of increasing mean annual temperature, a general warming is predicted to decrease (6-17%) the effect of shelters on larger predators, especially in Europe (Fig. S9).