3.1 Encounter
The best supported model for encounter (model A10, Table A3 in the
Appendix) included an interactive effect of time and colony (Robben
Island and Stony Point), and an additive effect of state (breeder,
nonbreeder, and prebreeder). At Stony point, encounter rates appeared
lower during 2015 and 2016, increasing up to 2018 and 2019, followed by
a decrease in nonbreeder and prebreeder encounter in 2020 (Figure 2).
Meanwhile at Robben Island, a general increase in encounter probability
for nonbreeders and prebreeders was evident between 2015 and 2018,
followed by a decrease, while breeder encounter rates remained
consistently high (Figure 2). Regardless of colony, the probability of
encountering breeders was consistently higher than nonbreeders and
prebreeders, with all estimable breeder encounter estimates
>0.9 at Robben, and 4 out of 6 estimates >0.9
at Stony Point.