5.1 Human-mediated environmental change
Human-mediated climate change is resulting in widespread and uneven
changes in global temperature, humidity, and precipitation patterns and
more frequent extreme weather events (IPCC 2021). In addition to climate
warming, regional changes in humidity and precipitation will result in
increased drought in some areas, while others become wetter (Konapalaet al. 2020). If mosquitoes and their transmission cycles are
more sensitive to humidity at higher temperatures, then future increases
in wet vs. dry heat may have very different implications for mosquito
populations and pathogen risk. Regional variation in temperature and
relative humidity could have important implications for both the
seasonal timing and peak of vector-borne disease (Santos-Vega et
al. 2016, 2022) as well as pathogen persistence or emergence. For
example, it has been suggested that future temperatures in tropical
Africa will exceed the thermal optimum for malaria and result in reduced
transmission (Mordecai et al. 2020). However, these tropical
regions are characterized by humid heat, and malaria may persist if the
maximum temperature for transmission increases at high humidity.
Similarly, the potential for arboviruses to expand into warming
temperate climates may be greater in regions with increasing humid heat
vs. dry heat, which has not been considered in current mechanistic model
projections of disease risk with various climate change scenarios
[e.g., (Ryan et al. 2020a, b; Caldwell et al. 2021)].
Land-use change is another key human driver affecting mosquito-borne
disease transmission (Baeza et al. 2017). For example, urban
landscapes are one of the most rapidly growing land cover types across
the globe (United Nations 2019), with the proportion of people living in
urban environment projected to increase from 55% to 68% between now
and 2050. High environmental heterogeneity in urban areas creates
substantial variation in the local microclimates mosquitoes experience,
through differences in temperature, moisture, and wind speed (Stewart &
Oke 2012). These differences are mediated by the extent of impervious
surfaces, the distribution of vegetation, and the three-dimensional
structure created by buildings and trees. Together, these changes result
in urban heat and dry islands (Heaviside et al. 2017) with higher
land surface (Yuan & Bauer 2007) and near-surface air temperatures
(Coseo & Larsen 2014) and lower relative humidity (Heaviside et
al. 2017; Lokoshchenko 2017; Yang et al. 2017; Hao et al.2018) compared to more vegetated landscapes. This fine-scale variation
in mosquito microclimate can have significant implications for multiple
mosquito species (e.g., Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Anopheles
stephensi ) that drive urban outbreaks of diseases (e.g., dengue,
chikungunya, Zika, and malaria) (Beebe et al. 2009; Stoddardet al. 2009; Li et al. 2014; Thomas et al. 2016,
2017; Murdock et al. 2017; Heinisch et al. 2019; Takken &
Lindsay 2019).
Small-scale variation in temperature and relative humidity could also
have important implications for the spatial distribution of risk in
urban environments (Fig 5). Recent studies that combine field
experimentation with direct monitoring of urban microclimates and
mosquito abundance demonstrate that fine-scale variation (e.g.,
individual neighborhoods or city blocks) in both temperature and
relative humidity can have important implications for mosquito life
history, population dynamics, and disease transmission within urban
environments (Murdock et al. 2017; Evans et al. 2018b,
2019; Wimberly et al. 2020). Thus, neighborhoods with a high
proportion of impervious surfaces that experience mean temperatures near
or exceeding the thermal optimum for transmission could experience even
higher decreases in vectorial capacity than what models would predict
from temperature alone, if drier conditions increase desiccation stress
and reduce mosquito survival.
To generalize the effects of changing temperature and humidity across
diverse locations and into the future, it will be necessary to develop a
conceptual framework that incorporates the psychometrics of temperature
and atmospheric moisture with mosquito biology and the natural and built
environments in which transmission occurs. Incorporating the effects of
humidity into hierarchical models and assessment of mosquito population
dynamics and disease transmission will increase the precision of mapping
environmental suitability, both globally and regionally with
human-mediated environmental change, as well as across heterogeneous
human-modified landscapes.