3.3 Modeled suitable distribution areas
Regarding suitable distributions based on BC- LU- HP variables, the current period (1970-2000) and future (the 2050s) were developed based on two different CO2 emission scenarios, SSP2, and SSP5 (Figure 2).
As for 1970-2000 (Figure 2A), highly suitable areas concentrate in the eastern part of the Northwest (Shannxi) and south of Coastal. Moderately suitable areas are severely fragmented, mainly in the south of the Southwest (Guangxi) and Coastal (Guangdong), and the poorly suitable areas are primarily in the Central and northern Coastal.
Concerning the 2050s based on SSP2 (Figure 2B), and compared to Figure 2A, some highly suitable areas appearing in 1970-2000 would be expanded; some places would be transferred to moderately suitable regions, primarily in the Southwest, southeast of the Northwest, and the south of the Coastal. Referring to SSP5 (Figure 2C) and compared with Figure 2A, the highly suitable areas in the south of the Coastal and the northeast of the Southwest would be downgraded to the moderately suitable area. In contrast, poorly suitable areas in the Northeast would be expanded.