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\begin{document}

\title{Flood Forecasting Using Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and
Hydrological Model in Sebeya Catchment, Rwanda}



\author[1]{Assoumpta Mukakarangwa}%
\author[1]{Daniel Aja}%
\affil[1]{Addis Ababa University College of Natural Sciences}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
We used Satellite data, quantitative precipitation forecasts and
rainfall-runoff model for short term flood forecasting in Sebeya
catchment. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) product was used
as satellite rainfall product for model calibration and validation and
forecasted European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
rainfall products were evaluated for flood forecasting. The performance
of the model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and
observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. Real time flow
forecast assessment was conducted with respect to three different flood
warning threshold levels for 3 to 24 hours lead times. The forecast
skill was assessed and the result for 3 hours lead time showed that 144
hours out of 199 hours were hit hours and there were only 15 hours of
false alarms and 19 hours of missed forecast. The number of hits
decreased as the lead time increased. The accuracy of both the
operational and real-time satellite rainfall products was too poor to
serve as model inputs without bias correction. The flood forecasts have
limitations in reproducing flood magnitudes. The findings of this study
can provide a base for future studies to establish a flood early warning
system in the study area and beyond.%
\end{abstract}%



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\verb`Manuscript_revised.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/726829/articles/709054-flood-forecasting-using-quantitative-precipitation-forecasts-and-hydrological-model-in-sebeya-catchment-rwanda}

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