4. Discussion
Climatic factors are the paramount determinant influencing the spatial distribution of species on a broad scale (Thuiller et al., 2008). Consequently, alterations in climate conditions stemming from human activities can adversely affect species’ future distribution and survival. Among various ecosystems, arid and semi-arid regions encompass roughly one-third of the Earth’s surface and exhibit heightened vulnerability to the evolving climate. To effectively plan and execute initiatives for biodiversity conservation, it becomes imperative to forecast the potential habitat range of species and delineate their spatial patterns under future climate conditions. This is particularly crucial for the hot and arid Saharo-Sindian ecosystem, characterized by low resilience. In the study, the task of predicting the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of Z. spina-christiand Z. nummularia while also assessing their spatial niche segregation was undertaken. The findings carry substantial implications for the conservation of these species (Harris et al., 2006; Ghehsareh Ardestani et al., 2021).
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Our research revealed that variables linked to temperature exerted the most influence on predicting the spatial range of Z. spina-christi . In the case of Z. nummularia , the most influential factors were the precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum temperature during the warmest month, and isothermality. Notably, Ghehsareh Ardestani et al. in (2021) conducted a study in southern Iran focusing on the distribution of Haloxylon persicumand highlighted the pivotal role played by temperature-related variables in determining the species’ range. It is worth noting that our findings diverge from those presented by Ksiksi et al. (2019). According to their research, the three primary predictors influencing the geographical distribution of Ziziphus spina-christi in the United Arab Emirates encompassed precipitation during the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, and mean diurnal range, accounting for approximately 80% of the predictions.