4.4. Scope and model limitations
While the predictive models employed in the study exhibited strong
performance in delineating the climate niche of the species under
examination, certain constraints within the predictions should be
acknowledged. It is essential to recognize that the actual niche
occupied by the species tends to be more confined when compared to its
potential niche.
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This discrepancy arises from the fact that climatic variables, while
pivotal, do not exclusively dictate a species’ ecological niche.
Additional factors, notably biotic and edaphic elements, introduce
constraints and exert subtle influences on the habitat distribution of a
given species.
On a macro scale, it remains evident that climatic factors remain the
primary drivers behind species distribution. Nevertheless, it is
imperative to note that our predictive models exclusively relied on
climatic variables, excluding other biotic and abiotic factors from
consideration. Consequently, our models may not offer a comprehensive
prediction of the potential impacts of climate change on the future
range of the species in question.
To illustrate, human activities, including but not limited to land use
alterations, overgrazing, and urbanization, will wield substantial
influence over species distribution in the future. These activities
introduce additional complexities and limitations to the future range of
the species, which are not accounted for by our models. Top of Form
Furthermore, uncertainties surrounding future greenhouse gas
concentrations could undermine our predictions’ validity.
In summary, while the predictive models employed in this study displayed
commendable accuracy in delineating the climate niche of the species, it
is essential to acknowledge the inherent limitations stemming from the
exclusion of crucial biotic and abiotic factors. These omissions
underscore the complexity of forecasting the impact of climate change on
the species’ future range, especially in the face of evolving human
activities and uncertain environmental variables.
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