Critical Environmental Variables and Rationale
Precipitation emerged as a key environmental driver of Chinese pangolin distribution in our study. Larger-scale studies in regions like China and East China had also highlighted a significant positive correlation between precipitation and potential suitable habitats for pangolins (Ta et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2018), suggesting a widespread climatic influence. This link was likely due to the interconnectedness of precipitation with the distribution of pangolin’s primary food sources—ants—and local human activity patterns. While other areas might prioritize variables like the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) (Sharma,Rimal, et al., 2020), our findings highlighted the distinct ecological dynamics at the county scale. Overall, climatic factors played a dominant role in influencing pangolin distribution.
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for March (NDVI0321) ranked second in influence, with a contribution rate of 16.5% (see Table 2). Pangolins, primarily feeding on ants and termites, thrived in healthy, dense vegetation (Sharma,Sharma, et al., 2020; Tamang et al., 2022), correlating with higher NDVI values. This suggested a robust dependency on vibrant ecosystems for food sourcing and shelter (Acharya et al., 2021; Sharma,Rimal, et al., 2020; Thapa et al., 2014). Moreover, NDVI indicators reflected the critical ecological period of March, potentially aligning with key pangolin activities such as foraging and breeding. This highlighted the crucial role of maintaining healthy vegetation for the survival of pangolins and other wildlife.
Slope, contributing 15%, was identified as the third most influential factor. This correlation might have been attributed to the improved drainage on sloped terrains, essential for maintaining dry burrows during rainy seasons, and the provision of natural cover against predators. Furthermore, sloped areas typically experienced less human disturbance, offering a more stable habitat (Acharya et al., 2021). Our study demonstrated the nuanced relationship between pangolin habitat preferences and topography.
Proximity to water sources, although contributing only 2.86%, was noteworthy. Rivers, as consistent water sources, were vital for pangolin survival. Moist soils near rivers fostered abundant food resources, crucial for pangolin sustenance (Katuwal et al., 2017). This factor underscored the importance of riverine habitats in pangolin conservation strategies.
Lastly, the minimal contribution of distance from roads at 0.22% should not have been overlooked. Roads facilitated human access, and in the context of illegal poaching—a significant threat to pangolins (IUCN, 2023)—this variable gained importance. Our findings resonated with studies from regions like Dhankuta, Ilam, and Terai in Nepal (Katuwal et al., 2017; Shrestha et al., 2021), where road proximity significantly influenced pangolin distribution. This suggested roads might serve as critical ecological corridors, highlighting the need for targeted conservation measures.
In summary, this study offered groundbreaking insights into the habitat suitability and conservation needs of Manis pentadactyla, emphasizing the role of climatic, vegetative, topographical, and anthropogenic factors in shaping its habitat preferences. The comprehensive approach taken here set a precedent for future wildlife conservation research and policy development at a localized scale.
Conservation Strategy Recommendations
In this pioneering study, we utilized an integrative approach combining field surveys, remote sensing data, and ecological modeling, to assess the distribution and conservation status of the Chinese pangolin at a detailed county level. This approach established a groundbreaking framework for research and policy development on endangered species at the county level. Our analysis detailed the proportions of suitable habitat distributions within and outside the nature reserve (refer to Table 3). Notably, nine vital administrative villages outside the reserve accounted for significant portions of moderately and highly suitable habitats. By incorporating these areas into conservation management plans, we were able to effectively cover 62% of moderately suitable and 75% of highly suitable habitats (as illustrated in Figures 3B and C). We recommended the inclusion of these villages in the design of new pangolin reserves and emphasized the importance of policy advocacy and intensified monitoring. Special attention was needed to prevent deforestation and illegal poaching in primary habitats, crucial for the survival of pangolins (Tinsman et al., 2023). Given the significant correlation identified between pangolin consumption and poaching (Bashyal et al., 2021; Emogor et al., 2023; Nash et al., 2016), promoting community awareness and conservation policies in these areas was essential.
Our projections for Mingxi County (2021-2040) indicated an expected increase in the Chinese pangolin’s habitat distribution (see Figure 4). This anticipated expansion, likely due to increased precipitation from rising temperatures and positively correlated with pangolin distribution (Ta et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2018). Under China’s stringent conservation policies, this habitat expansion offered promise for an increase in the pangolin population. The forecasted habitat extension, particularly in the eastern regions of Mingxi County like Xiayang Township and Hufang Town, underscored the necessity for strategic conservation planning. However, risks posed by global warming and population growth necessitated a careful consideration of these threats (Gao et al., 2022), emphasizing the need for focused monitoring and policy intervention over the next two decades.
This study provided a clear, applicable research model for county-level administrative units in China, particularly valuable in areas with existing reserves. With the Chinese pangolin being a critically endangered and flagship species, our study’s approach aimed to inspire similar conservation efforts across various administrative levels. We encouraged local governments and reserve managers to apply our methodology, significantly contributing to the protection of pangolins and other endangered species. In light of recent discoveries in pangolin species (Gu,Wu, et al., 2023), the urgency of field surveys was emphasized, advocating them as a priority in conservation efforts.
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
This research undertook a groundbreaking and detailed assessment of the distribution and conservation status of Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla ) at a county-level scale, integrating comprehensive field surveys, cutting-edge remote sensing technologies, and sophisticated ecological modeling approaches. Conducted in Mingxi County, Fujian Province, China, this study innovatively utilized the Biomod2 integrated model to project potential habitat distributions for pangolins, shedding light on the intricate impacts of diverse environmental variables on their spatial distribution. Key discoveries encompassed:
  1. Within the confines of this county-scale investigation, precipitation was identified as the pivotal environmental determinant affecting the distribution of the Chinese pangolin, aligning with the findings from broader geographical studies. This underscored the vital linkage between pangolin survival, reproductive behavior, and the distribution of their primary food source, ants, in relation to climatic conditions.
  2. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for March (NDVI0321) and the terrain’s slope emerged as other critical environmental factors, illustrating the essentiality of robust and dense vegetation along with specific topographical features for pangolin habitation.
  3. The study also revealed that a substantial proportion of the highly and moderately suitable habitats for pangolins in Mingxi County, both inside and external to the nature reserve, remained insufficiently safeguarded, particularly in nine crucial administrative villages. The outcomes of this investigation highlighted the imperative for developing and executing targeted conservation strategies for endangered species like the Chinese pangolin at a county level. Anticipated habitat expansions for pangolins, particularly in the eastern sectors of Mingxi County, due to climate change, accentuated the urgency of enhancing protective measures in key habitat zones, critical to the species’ prolonged survival. Furthermore, the study advocated for the intensification of public education and community participation to mitigate illegal poaching and foster pangolin conservation. In summary, this research not only offered invaluable scientific evidence for the effective preservation of the Chinese pangolin but also served as a significant exemplar and benchmark for the protection of endangered species in regions worldwide.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was supported by The Special Fund for Wildlife Protection of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China (HZ2022026-2023).CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENTThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.Author contributionsLiu Wei and Xie yanping designed the study; Nie Xiaoxiao, Chen Fengjiao, Guo Ning, Zhang Yong, Xiao Shuping and Huang Yanbin performed the experiments; Liu Wei, Nie Xiaoxiao and Xie Yanping analyzed the data; Liu Wei, Nie Xiaoxiao and Xie yanping wrote the manuscript.DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENTAdditional supporting information (Appendix 1) may be found on line in the Supporting Information section at the end of the article.REFERENCES
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Legend
Table 1. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of ten modelling algorithms used in this study.